Blake SnellLAD vs CIN238.06 to 103.83 to 52.82 to 4
Parker MessickCLE vs CWS236.85 to 84.43 to 61.71 to 2
Logan HendersonMIL vs PIT236.55 to 84.43 to 61.71 to 2
Robbie RaySD vs COL236.45 to 84.63 to 61.91 to 3
Max ScherzerTOR vs DET236.14 to 84.63 to 61.41 to 2
Zack WheelerPHI vs WSH236.14 to 84.53 to 61.30 to 2
Zebby MatthewsMIN vs NYY235.84 to 75.04 to 61.91 to 3
Robert StockNYM vs BAL235.74 to 74.53 to 62.72 to 4
Cristian JavierHOU vs KC235.74 to 74.33 to 62.11 to 3
Jared JonesPIT vs MIL235.64 to 74.73 to 62.11 to 3
MacKenzie GoreTEX vs BOS235.54 to 74.73 to 62.11 to 3
Yusei KikuchiLAA vs SEA235.13 to 74.93 to 61.91 to 3
George KirbySEA vs LAA235.13 to 75.24 to 71.00 to 2
Mason AdamsCOL vs SD235.13 to 74.83 to 62.31 to 3
Carlos RodónNYY vs MIN235.03 to 74.53 to 62.01 to 3
Shota ImanagaCHC vs ATL235.03 to 74.94 to 61.20 to 2
Matthew LiberatoreSTL vs SF234.93 to 65.04 to 61.61 to 2
Anthony KayCWS vs CLE234.73 to 64.83 to 62.11 to 3
Jake BennettBOS vs TEX234.73 to 65.14 to 61.41 to 2
Chris BassittBAL vs NYM234.63 to 65.14 to 61.71 to 2
Merrill KellyAZ vs MIA234.53 to 65.24 to 71.91 to 3
Andrew AbbottCIN vs LAD234.53 to 65.24 to 62.11 to 3
JR RitchieATL vs CHC234.53 to 64.83 to 62.82 to 4
Jared SimpsonWSH vs PHI234.43 to 65.14 to 62.41 to 3
Ryan GustoMIA vs AZ234.43 to 65.14 to 62.01 to 3
Daniel Lynch IVKC vs HOU233.92 to 55.34 to 72.01 to 3
Brady BassoATH vs TB233.72 to 55.44 to 71.91 to 3
Anthony MolinaSF vs STL233.62 to 55.34 to 71.51 to 2
Keider MonteroDET vs TOR233.12 to 45.64 to 71.61 to 2
Nick MartinezTB vs ATH233.12 to 45.74 to 71.41 to 2
The model's projection for tonight, with the range it lands inside about half the time. Every line assumes the same 23 batters. Over 142 outings graded so far, the strikeout number lands within 1.8 of the real total.
Team ratings
Model strength · 30 teams
#TeamElo7-dayFormWin%
1Milwaukee BrewersMIL1594.4+7.64-162.0%
2Los Angeles DodgersLAD1569.6+12.63-260.4%
3Chicago CubsCHC1559.8-5.82-355.3%
4Boston Red SoxBOS1557.6-5.72-354.7%
5New York YankeesNYY1556.9-1.14-157.7%
6Atlanta BravesATL1544.3+0.43-258.7%
7Tampa Bay RaysTB1543.3+9.64-160.4%
8Philadelphia PhilliesPHI1542.9-10.52-355.3%
9San Diego PadresSD1539.2+14.15-054.4%
10Arizona DiamondbacksARI1510.9+2.62-352.7%
11New York Mets1509.7+20.43-246.3%
12Toronto Blue Jays1509.6-9.93-250.0%
13Detroit Tigers1506.9+7.64-147.0%
14Pittsburgh Pirates1506.8+7.53-250.0%
15Chicago White Sox1501-10.31-451.0%
16Houston Astros1498-5.31-450.0%
17Baltimore Orioles1494-0.22-348.0%
18Cleveland Guardians1492+1.53-250.7%
19Miami Marlins1491.3-6.32-349.3%
20St. Louis Cardinals1490.7-1.32-349.3%
21Kansas City Royals1474.7+4.12-344.0%
22Texas Rangers1474+5.52-349.3%
23Seattle Mariners1468.5+6.83-246.7%
24Washington Nationals1464.1-6.13-246.4%
25Minnesota Twins1461.6-11.32-347.0%
26San Francisco Giants1458.6-0.92-341.3%
27Cincinnati Reds1447.7-10.11-447.0%
28Los Angeles Angels1436.2+4.32-337.6%
29Athletics1402.8-4.43-240.7%
30Colorado Rockies1392.6-15.70-536.9%
The model's Elo rating: a running team-strength number that rises with wins and falls with losses, weighted by opponent quality. Movement is the last 7 days.
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